Sacramento Predictions

I was looking at the number of homes currently on the Sacramento area market, how inventory has changed in the past year and the impact on prices and value with so many homes for sale in preparation for writing my weekly columns for Rocklin & Roseville Today and Sacramento Today. I had promised myself I would avoid making predictions in such turbulent times but somehow when you write about how many Sacramento homes for sale last year and this year it seems impossible not to say where you believe this number will go by year-end. If you are interested in seeing what I had to say on the subject check out may latest article, “Sacramento Year End Inventory.”

Martin Luther King Day: Pretty amazing to be celebrating the life of Dr. King and his efforts to break down barriers caused by race on the day before we inaugurate the first African-American President, Barack Obama. Regardless of you political party affiliations and who you voted for tomorrow is a new beginning for America. If there is strength in our culture it comes from optimism and hope that we share for a better tomorrow.

There are fewer homes for sale in Sacramento

With September sales volume of up in all counties in the Sacramento region from last year and for most counties up even from August we are finally seeing a decline in homes for sale. Check out my weekly column, “Six Months of Increasing Homes Sales in Sacramento,” over at Rocklin & Roseville Today for the details and a prediction.

With this great “Indian Summer” weather even October continues to show some good levels of activity. Homes priced right are getting a fair number of showings and most of our short sales all have solid offers being reviewed by the seller’s lenders. Most of these even have backup offers. Most of the activity we are seeing is in the under $350,000 price point. We have seen some of our seller’s of more expensive homes ask to take their homes off the market as showings of homes priced above $600,000 has slowed down as buyers are waiting to see how the economy and credit markets respond to the Government rescue/bailout plan.

Sacramento Housing Inventory is Down

The trend is clear; we are not going to be seeing the normal buildup of inventory of homes in the Sacramento real estate market this year. Normally starting in late February or early March the number of homes coming on the market is faster than sales so inventory of available homes increases until August. Going into the spring, inventory was already high but instead of increasing it has actually declined. As of June 9, according to HousingTracker, there were 14,670 homes on the market in the Sacramento area. This level of inventory is down 4.2 percent in the past three months and down 11.5 percent from six months ago. Again this is particularly noteworthy that the decline is happening during a time of year when we would expect to see inventory growing.

The decline in inventory is a direct result of more homes being sold than houses being put on the market. Yes, sales are up but I also believe there are homeowners who, although they would like to sell are holding off until they see if the market will improve.

In the latest report from HousingTracker, the median asking price of homes on the market was $305,000. This is down $2,000 from the week before but holding level from a month ago. Compared to six months ago the median asking price is down almost 10 percent and off 23.4 percent from a year ago. If inventory continues to decline there will be some pressure on prices to increase but I am not making any predictions in this area as I think it will be mid-2009 before we may see any firming of prices and some balance in the market.

Mid-Week Report

I must have forgotten to knock on wood last week when I babbled on about For Sale Declines and being amazed that inventory of homes on the market in the Sacramento area were declining and prices were holding steady. I just surfed over to HousingTracker to take a look at inventory and prices this week and was surprised again, for a different reason.

It wasn’t surprising to see inventory creeping up as there are 148 more single family and condo homes on the market this week than last. After all this is the traditional time of year we always experience increases in homes being sold. What did surprise me was the median asking price. For the past five weeks it has been hovering around $309,000 and I thought for sure with all the buyer activity we are seeing it might stay in that range. According to HousingTracker the median asking price for a home in the Sacramento area for the week ended April 14 dropped to $305,000, a 1.2 percent drop in a single week.

Other Items:
1. Welcome to our newest agent at MagnumOne Realty, Tina Farinas. You can learn more about Tina and her business at www.tinafarinas.com.
2. Kara Green will be hosting an Open House at Megan Way in Sacramento on Saturday, check our website for details (map).
3. On Sunday, Tina Farina will be at Latigo Court in Roseville hosting an open house. Check back on the website later today and see the photos of this great home (map).
4. Hope you all remembered to file your tax returns or request for extension yesterday!

For Sales Decline

Okay, make me officially amazed! Inventory has not started growing like it normally does this time of year, it has actually declined. According to our friends over at HousingTracker, the number of homes on the market in the Sacramento area has declined 2.9 percent in the past month and now stands at less than 15,000 for the first time since the low last spring of just over 13,000. This trend if it continues could make for an interesting second half of the year.

While inventory is declining or at least holding steady during the past few weeks the median asking price for homes has been hanging in the $309,000 range for the past five weeks. As of April 7 it was at exactly $309,000 down .3 percent in the past month. Asking prices seem to be showing signs, albeit weak signs, of stabilizing.

If there was any doubt about buyers getting active it was erased this past weekend when I showed a house one of my clients was interested in. Since it was loaded with Realtor cards I called the listing agent to get a status update. Believe it or not within two days of being on the market she has received 22 offers and said she was not taking any more! As we were leaving, two other agents were pulling up with their clients.

Adorable

As you can imagine, I have listed a number of homes and visited thousands more, but not often do I see a home that is truly adorable. The house I listed today falls into the adorable category! The sellers are a young couple that took a subdivision model home with lots of upgrades to the next level. It is one of those homes that you feel you could just move right in and enjoy. As slow as this market is right now I think, if we can get some showings, this one will sell quickly. Take a look at Cargill Way – Roseville and let me know what you think.

By the way, the last report from HousingTracker essentially showed inventory and median asking price flat from the previous week. It is good that inventory is not going up but shows the increase in foreclosure activity is keeping it high. Perhaps the drop in interest rate will flush out what some are calling “pent-up demand.”

Which dog is 77 this month?

We just mailed out the September issue of my Newsletter and it is pretty good with snippets about Patriot Day, a famous dog’s 77^th birthday and “Indian Summer”. We printed a few extra so drop me a note if you would like to receive a FREE copy.

Well, as I have been saying for the past few weeks, the Sacramento real estate market generally slows to a crawl the last two weeks of August and through the Labor Day weekend. I just checked the inventory level over at HousingTracker and for the week ending September 3 there was virtually no change from the previous week. We were down 6 homes to 18, 838. We should get a good idea of what September will bring with the report on September 10. Traditionally, the inventory has peaked for the year and is starting down as we move into the fall months but with the increased foreclosure activity we may see a different pattern this year.

Have a great weekend and if you are out and about on Sunday, stop by my Tanus Circle listing in Rocklin and say hello.

Have we set a new record?

It seems to have happened sooner than I anticipated! I thought we would see two more weeks of growing inventory or available homes and condos on the market before the record numbers started their seasonal decline. According to HousingTracker, as of the week ending August 6th the number of homes on the market declined from the previous week. From the July 30 record high of 18,454 homes on the market we saw a decline of 162 to 18,292. Compared to a year ago at this time, current inventory is 2.7 percent higher. As you can see from the attached chart, the build-up last year was more rapid and the decline happened almost as quickly. This year, although the market exceeded the maximum number of homes on the market in August 2005, the build-up was a bit more gradual. It will be interesting to see if we plateau for a few weeks before starting to see the number of homes on the market decline.

During the past week, according to HousingTracker, we saw a slight decline in the median asking price for available homes, from $385,000 to $384,900. Over the past month the median asking price has declined 1.3 percent and over the past year it has dropped 10.5 percent.
So far this summer our Jalone Real Estate Group has remained very busy but I anticipate a few weeks of quiet as families get ready to start a new school year. Our son, Mikie, started soccer practice yesterday and I can tell you the soccer equipment store we go to, Extreme Soccer, was full of parents getting their kids ready for the new season. I doubt many of them were thinking about buying or selling real estate! Our schools start two weeks from today. It will be after

Labor Day before we should start seeing some new activity. Then, believe it or not, it is the rush into the holiday season.

Hey, I still want a few lazy days of summer!

New Record Every Day

Inventory of homes available for sale in the greater Sacramento area continues to grow. Looks like we will end July with over 18,400 homes on the market which is 3.5 percent more than a month ago and a whopping 44 percent increase from where we were six months ago. During the same time the median asking price has dropped 2.5 percent in the past month and 3.8 percent in the past six months to $385,000. It wasn’t that long ago that it was holding steady at the $400,000 level. For a detailed look at inventory here in Sacramento, check out HousingTracker.

I’d say we will top out and begin a gradual decline in available homes before we hit the 19,000 level and maybe the median asking price will slip to $383,000. By the end of August we will see declining inventory and maybe even some firming of asking prices.

Speaking of inventory of available homes, I added a new listing yesterday. I am excited about it because this home shows like a page out of the Pottery Barn catalog. It is a beautiful home located in the Sierra Valley Oaks subdivision off of Sierra College Blvd. in Rocklin. The home, on Tanus Circle, is a 4 bedroom, 3 bath beauty in a great neighborhood with wonderful schools.

Congratulations to Michael and Kelly who took their State of California Real Estate License test on Saturday and both passed with flying colors.

Summer Days

What a great summer so far, nice hot days and although we have been busy there is a casual feel to each day that you don’t seem to get any other time of year. At our house we have gone from watching the America’s Cup yachting races to the Tour de France. It makes you want to rent a bike and tour around Europe….well, maybe another summer for that.

There was a surprise with the build up in inventory of homes for sale. Last week I said we had most likely surpassed the record high of last August when I looked at the HousingTracker report of July 2nd. I just took a look to see the July 9th report and we actually saw a decline of 89 homes for sale to 17,906. After you think about last week with a holiday on Wednesday, it is not surprising that there weren’t many new houses being listed. I expect we will see that change this week.

All Summer Long!

Been kind of an up and down week around here. Busy with some client issues, in particular trying to recover a deposit, setting up an escrow and doing some general research for an investor who is interested in buying in our area.

Over the past week I have been contacted by two investors who feel like now is the time to buy in our market. Neither on lives here, both are in other parts of California and have said the believe now is the time to look at Sacramento real estate. During the past month, a home in my neighborhood was sold and now rented by an investor so maybe all of this is a sign. Or at least an indication that there are buyers out there who believe the Sacramento real estate market has stabilized.

I checked and see that available inventory is continuing to creep up with over 17,000 home on the market in the greater Sacramento area. As more houses come on the market there is downward pressure on pricing and according to the latest report at HousingTracker, the median asking price slipped a bit from where it has been over the past several weeks.

On a happy note, today is the last day of school for Mikie and his 1^st grade classmates here in the Roseville/Rocklin area. The last few weeks have been busy for all of us as school was wrapping up so I know it is more than just Mikie looking forward to a summer break! Do you remember how good it felt on the last day of class and knowing you had an entire summer to play?

Still more to do

Another week is slipping by and although I feel like I was busy, in the end I can’t say I accomplished as much as I had hoped. For one I didn’t get a new column posted over at Rocklin & Roseville Today and I wanted to write another piece for MyForSaleSign. What we did accomplish is getting the June Newsletter published, still in the final printing so if you are not on my mailing list and would like to be, let me know by email or filling out this short form.

During the week we have added another 350+ homes to the available inventory here in the Sacramento real estate market. As I mentioned earlier in the week, there does not seem to be any reason we will not exceed the record high of homes on the market later this summer. I continue to be surprised that asking prices continue to resist the kind of drops we saw last year as inventory was building. Right now, according to HousingTracker we have 16,967 homes on the market with a stable median asking price of $399,000. I have a great listing out in Natomas and we just lowered the price from $511,350 to $499,000 in hopes of increasing showing activity. It is a great house on Beretania Way and if you or anyone you know is looking for a nice home, I would be happy to arrange a showing.

Speaking of showings, if you are out and about in the Yuba City area tomorrow, stop by and say hello. I will be holding Randi’s condo/townhome open from 1 to 4 PM.

Have a great Friday and weekend

Up, up and beyond!

Another week of watching inventory of homes for sale in the Sacramento area continues to grow and I don’t see anything on the horizon to stop this year’s inventory from exceeding the record highs we experienced last year. As of May 21 there were 16, 608 homes in the greater Sacramento area as counted by HousingTracker. This is an increase of 260 from the week before and an increase of 6.3 percent in the last month and 26.1 percent in the last three months.

The difference this year is although increasing inventory puts downward pressure on pricing the median asking price in the Sacramento real estate market has remained resistant to any significant drops. Looking at the first five months of 2007 shows that average median asking price in January of $402,399 has only dropped to an average of $399,000 in May. In the past month the drop has only been .2 percent.

So far, the Memorial Day weekend looks like it has been busy for sellers with lots of open houses and potential buyers out looking. Don’t forget to check out my latest updates over at MyForSaleSign and check out the new Meet Our Team page.

Another Week – More Inventory

The number of homes coming on the market is happening faster than sales, expired listings and those withdrawn by their owners. I the past week, ending May 14th, the number of available homes increased 179 to 16,348. According to HousingTracker we have seen inventory grow 7.1 percent in the past month and is on tract to exceed our record highs we experienced last August.



Surprisingly, the median asking price during this current inventory growth has not changed very much. During the past three months while inventory has grown 25.6 percent the median asking price has only dropped .2 percent, all of which has come in the last month.



Well, it looks like another great spring day in Alaska, the buds that were on the trees when I got here are now leaves and it won’t be long before the grey of winter will be totally gone.

Mother's Day & More

This has been a busy week for me as I prepare to sneak off for a few days to see my Mom on Mother’s Day. Recently I have had the good fortune to be working with a number of clients who are looking to buy new homes. They cover most of the traditional reasons for wanting to buy a home. Some are moving here from other locations but others are looking to have a smaller or larger home.

The inventory of available homes is high, a good percentage are
overpriced and most end up sitting on the market for months. But there is a group of for sale homes that are different. First, they are prepared to sell; they are easy to show and are priced right. In other words they are clean, well maintained, have good features, the sellers are cooperative and the asking price is supported by looking at what similar homes in the area have sold for. These homes are selling. It may not be like it was a few years ago but they are selling much faster than most of their competition.

Buyers have a lot on their side right now but the smart buyers know the luxury of time is not always there when they find the right house.

On this Mother’s Day weekend, let us each remember the best of our mother. Have a great weekend!

Can asking prices remain steady?

To the dismay of many, as inventory of available homes continues to grow the median asking price has remained almost unchanged. Each month so far this year inventory has grown in the Sacramento area. According to HousingTracker, inventory of available homes has gone from the low 12,000’s in January to the current level of 15,918 as of April 30. All during this buildup the median asking price has not changed much and has been hovering around the $400,000 level. As of April 30 HousingTracker reports a median asking price of $399,000, a .02 percent drop from a month ago.



If inventory continues to expand at the current rate we will see more homes on the market than we did last year when we hit highs of over 18,000 homes for sale in the Sacramento area, as defined by HousingTracker. This will undoubtedly put a great deal of pressure on sellers to lower their asking price to attract buyers. It may be a long hot and disappointing summer for sellers.

Blah March for Sacramento Real Estate

There is nothing positive to report about the Sacramento real estate market in March. Sales volumes are down, prices are not showing any strength, and inventory of available homes continues to grow. Slice it and dice it anyway you want and I’m not sure who you are to find anything to feel good about. Well, I suppose there are a few “bubblers” out there who seem to take delight in seeing the Sacramento real estate market in trouble. Read the full story: “No March flowers for Sacramento real estate” on my Real Estate News page or in my column at Rocklin & Roseville Today.

More For Sale Signs

The number of homes for sale in the Sacramento area continues to swell as we move deeper into the traditional spring selling season. According to HousingTracker, in the past week ending April 16, there was a growth of 413 in the available inventory of homes for sale. This is the largest weekly increase in the past few months. During the past month the inventory has grown 10.8 percent and stands at 15,262 homes and condos for sale. This is an increase of 23.4 percent from a year ago when we were on our way to record levels of inventory during August 2006.

The Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville Metropolitan Statistical Area approximation has 18,477 total listings of which 15,262 are either Single Family or Condo homes. The area includes the major cities of Auburn, Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Davis, Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Roseville, Sacramento, South Lake Tahoe, West Sacramento and many others.

In other news foreclosures are also growing. This morning in the Sacramento Bee’s business section was a full report on the growing number of foreclosure notices sent to area homeowners during the first quarter. See the full story, “Foreclosures in full bloom” for details.

Where will it go?

Inventory of is edging up in the Sacramento area. As of March 26, according to the website HousingTracker, the number of homes on the market in Sacramento increased by 390 to 14,163. This represents a 5.9 percent increase in the past month and 4.5 percent growth over where we were three months ago. The good news is the median asking price is remaining at or near $400,000 with the most recent numbers down from the previous week to $395,950. We are clearly in the spring selling season and as long as we don’t see any significant price erosion I think we will continue to see offers being made and contracts closing.

Over at Sacramento Real Estate Statistics the author is a bit more pessimistic or optimistic depending on how you want to Sacramento real estate market to perform. He had this to say:

Looks like the spring selling season has officially begun, and it's off to a
fast start. Late March 2007 inventory is higher than mid-May 2006 levels. Both
Agent Bubble and I predict inventory could top 20,000 listings this summer. (At
this rate of increase, we will hit that number by late June or early July. One
week doesn’t make a trend, however.)

Please note that although both of the sites above report on inventory levels, each use different data sources and geographic areas to develop their numbers so they are not directly comparable.

Random Thoughts

I was doing my normal web surfing this week and came upon a cool real estate blog that finds and posts celebrity real estate listings. Some are clearly more interesting than others and most of the houses are fun to look at so I thought I’d pass the link along, Celebrity Listings.

I have been having some fun this past week helping a client negotiate a purchase of a home that is owned by the “bank.” In this particular situation the banks agent has asked us to negotiate verbally with him. When I give him our offer he evidently plugs it into a protected web page. Someone at the bank reviews the offer and then, as it has been all week, makes a counter. It is quick, with at least two of our counters responded to within hours. We got their latest counter on Friday and responded with another offer later in the day. I thought we might hear back from them before end of business but that did not happen so I suspect it will be Monday before we have the answer or counter. If we are able to reach an agreement the contract will be created and all parties will sign, at least that is the plan!

Inventory in the greater Sacramento area, according to HousingTracker, is up 3.6 percent in the past month but in the latest week, ending March 5 they show a decline of 170 available homes and the median asking price still at $400,000. Last year we saw inventory from this time grow to over 18,000 homes on the market. I do anticipate inventory to increase as we move into the spring selling season but do not believe we will see the same level of growth as we did last year. This year we appear to have more buyers.