Consumer Confidence Down and Inventory Holding Steady

The Consumer Confidence Index was down for August as more Americans expect business conditions and job supply to get worse. The decline was the largest one-month decline in confidence since Hurricane Katrina. See the full story here.

The good news is that inventory of homes for sale is has not been increasing. Although up from the beginning of August there have been modest declines in the past two weeks as reported at HousingTracker where the inventory for Sacramento is shown to be 12,160 compared to 12,168 a week ago and 12,180 on August 14.

This week continues to be pretty slow with the holiday weekend rapidly approaching but as we reach next week the lazy days of summer will rapidly fade as we move closer to fall. I am anticipating seeing more buyers in the market and increased sales during September.

Julie Jalone's July Analysis - Finally!

Here it is with August coming to an end and I have bee reading about how our local real estate market performed in July for at least the past two weeks. I am usually right there with the other pundits reporting on the numbers and adding my own comments and predictions but this month I have found it difficult to get started.

The numbers for July in the four county Greater Sacramento area are not very positive. With minor exceptions the activity levels are down significantly from last year and not even as high as last month. Median prices are now generally negative on an annual basis compared to double digit increases we have seen in the last few years and inventory of available homes is still too high. The new item we are now talking about is home buyers who are sitting on the sidelines. I have my share of them; they are in no hurry to find a home, want to look but at the same time are waiting to see if prices continue to decline. For these reasons it took me an extra week or so to finally write my “July Analysis.”

There is some good news, interest rates are down for the fifth straight week, school has started as Labor Day comes and goes we should see a pick-up of activity. It was this time last year that the slow down began to impact the real estate market so going forward we will be seeing our comparison numbers with last year looking a bit less anemic.

Julie Jalone's July Analysis - Finally!

Here it is with August coming to an end and I have bee reading about how our local real estate market performed in July for at least the past two weeks. I am usually right there with the other pundits reporting on the numbers and adding my own comments and predictions but this month I have found it difficult to get started.

The numbers for July in the four county Greater Sacramento area are not very positive. With minor exceptions the activity levels are down significantly from last year and not even as high as last month. Median prices are now generally negative on an annual basis compared to double digit increases we have seen in the last few years and inventory of available homes is still too high. The new item we are now talking about is home buyers who are sitting on the sidelines. I have my share of them; they are in no hurry to find a home, want to look but at the same time are waiting to see if prices continue to decline. For these reasons it took me an extra week or so to finally write my “July Analysis.”

There is some good news, interest rates are down for the fifth straight week, school has started as Labor Day comes and goes we should see a pick-up of activity. It was this time last year that the slow down began to impact the real estate market so going forward we will be seeing our comparison numbers with last year looking a bit less anemic.

Slow but maybe...

…there is some good news for the local real estate market around the corner. The Sacramento Bee had a positive story today, “Housing hopes rise on rate dip.” The article is about rates falling for the fifth straight week and the impact it could have on buyers and sellers. It also reminds us of the large inventory and buyers waiting for prices to come down further than they already have.

A quick check of the inventory at HousingTracker and Sacramento Housing Bubble reveal that inventory growth has flattened and may be starting to decline. HousingTracker shows their version of Sacramento with 12,128 homes on the market as of August 21, down from last week for the first time in many weeks. The bubble page shows Placer County with 3,517 homes for sale down from a high of 3,580 on August 13.

Seeing interest rates down unexpectedly is a bonus and inventory starting to decline is good but we are a long way from seeing a balanced market and price appreciation. It Right now it remains a very slow buyers market but with Labor Day approaching we may see a September activity spike.

House and Yacht

The sellers of my listing on Fairway Drive in Rocklin have recently retired and are moving to be closer to family. They have been active boaters and are now selling their beautiful 37 foot Sea Ray 370 Sundancer yacht. They are willing to discount the price of the boat to the buyer of the house. The boat is for sale through Delta Yacht Sales, in Isleton, for a price of $109,000. If you have ever dreamed of owning a yacht this could be your opportunity!

Purchase negotiations for the boat must be done with Delta Yacht Sales and is not tied in anyway to the sale of the listing at 5306 Fairway Drive in Rocklin.

Note to Myself

August is a great month to take a vacation. Based on the weather and the end of summer slowdown, if there is ever a good time to be away from the office, it is now. With kids starting school there seems to be last minute trips out of town and lots of focus on getting ready to gear up for the fall. From what I have seen, little of that involves thinking about buying or selling a home.

My listings have been quiet this past week and the buyers I am working for are either out of town or waiting for homes to come on the market in specific neighborhoods. I suspect we have another week or two of this before Labor Day after which I am expecting an increase in activity.

Well this has given me a nice opportunity to spend some time with Mikie and get him ready to start 1st Grade tomorrow!

End of the week catch-up

Wow, did this week fly by? I have several left over notes for blog topics that did not make it into print this week so thought I’d just recap them today and start again fresh next week.

1. We have decided to expand our business and create a small group of like minded real estate professionals who find working together in a team atmosphere more rewarding than doing it alone. The idea is retain individual identity and business but to work together making each team member more successful. If you are an agent or know an agent you would like to discuss joining the team, let me know by sending me an email or checking out my team page at www.jalone.com.
2. There is a new family update and links to the Kevyn and Dave wedding photos on the Jalone family page.
   
3. Check out my latest Rocklin & Roseville Today Column, “More Discouraging News” which was published today.
   
4. Last but not least to the sellers out there: This is a difficult time in our real estate market with changes that have come on faster than I think many of us would have expected. The rapid growth in inventory, lower demand and now buyers who are hesitant to purchase all combine to make this a difficult time to sell. Remember that there are still buyers out there who are anxious to find their perfect home and it only takes one to fall in love with your home and make an offer. Right now showings are infrequent and open houses are sparkly attended. Although the next few weeks will remain very slow as the summer season wraps up, I am expecting some increased activity in September, after Labor Day. Hang-in there, be patient and make each showing count.

More Inventory Talk

These have been the best days of summer, nice long warm days and evenings and cool nights make it a perfect time to be outside. I only wish there were more buyers out looking at homes. There are some great houses on the market, including my four listings, and sellers who are willing to negotiate!

Take a look at my column, “More Inventory Talk” at Rocklin & Roseville Today. I just posted it and am making some predictions on our inventory levels.

By the way, thanks go to Sacramento Land (ing) for posting my last blog entry. It is always fun to see my comments on another site!

Busy Weekend and a War Story

This past weekend was busy for me. I held two open houses, attempted to negotiate a buy, showed some houses to two sets of potential buyers and discussed selling strategy with all four of my sellers.

The market is clearly slow, the traffic at the open houses was minimal but I did have the opportunity to read the article in the Sacramento Bee. “Come right in, folks,” about open houses which I thought was remarkably non-thought provoking.

One of the most interesting things that happened over the weekend was a counter offer one of my clients received on a home they made an offer on. Now remember that we live in “Glutville” when it comes to homes on the market. Even the recent HousingTracker numbers for Sacramento continue to show inventory growing each week and asking prices dropping. My buyers offer was 5.7 percent lower than the asking price. The seller and his astute agent who I think doubles as a lender, countered our offer at full price. They sent a note with the counter saying since they listed the home the seller has lowered his price $30,000 and feels my buyer should understand why he wants his current asking price.

Attention sellers - please understand your price reductions to get buyers attentions is not their issue. In today’s market buyers have negotiating power and because we can’t count on double digit appreciation the purchase price has become very important. My buyer, like most buyers, wanted to negotiate and was willing to increase his offer. This was not here is my “low ball” offer, take it or leave it. This seller showed he was unwilling to negotiate and lost a potential sale in a market where buyers are scarce.

In this buyers market I would never advise my clients to list their property with their bottom line sales price. You should leave some room to negotiate with your buyer.

Lets Say Thanks

Say Thank You!
There Would it be great if you could say thanks to one of or Soldiers serving in Iraq and around the world. I found a great site where you can do just that and it only takes a minute. It is sponsored by Xerox and you select the card for them to print and mail. Please visit, Lets Say Thanks today and let others know about it. Thank you.

Fairway Drive - Rocklin

This is a great house in a great Rocklin neighborhood. The house is three good size bedrooms with two full baths. The current occupants have added custom cabinetry throughout and have made this home one to be proud of. The home has a great location close to schools, parks and shopping but also has a sense of privacy when you arrive home. Both front and back are professionally landscaped and the covered lanai and patio make a perfect place to relax or entertain on warm summer evenings. Take a closer look on my website or shoot me an email if you have questions.

Take a look at my column today, Rates and Mortgage Advice, at Rocklin & Roseville Today.

Inventory Growth is Slowing

There is clearly enough evidence out there today to say the growth in available homes for sale is slowing. As you know if you read my Blog regularly I keep a pretty close eye on inventory and one of the sites I like is HousingTracker. Although their definition of “Sacramento” includes some but not all of the surrounding area I think it is a good indicator of where we stand on inventory. As of today they showed 12,048 homes on the market which is only up 25 homes from a week ago.

I thought we might see a surge in homes hitting the market after the heat wave but that did not happen. The available inventory is clearly a number most controlled by new listings as the number of sold/pending is still a trickle. Having said that, even though the “buy before school starts” selling has passed, I think we may see our first declines over the next month.

We are starting a new week today with clouds and a good breeze. I currently have four listings all of them very nice homes. Take a minute and take a look at my current listings. If you know someone who might be interested in one of them please let me know. I love referrals and always make sure they know it!

Scratched CD's? No Problem!

I could not help following a link to Scratched CD's? No Problem since our son Mikie seems to have a problem taking care of his Playstation 2 games and his DVD's. We have generally tried cleaning and on occassion buffing with a stove top cleaning paste but there are some that just don't work any more. If you follow the above link you will find the solution, according to the author, is hair gel!

Higher and Lower

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, despite a third consecutive week of lower interest rates, mortgage applications have declined and are now at the lowest level since November 2003.

With rates down refinance applications increased to 37 percent of all mortgage applications. This is an increase from 36.5 percent the week before.

In other news both Placer and Sacramento counties both saw mortgage default notices double during the second quarter. Statewide there were 20,752 default notices sent during the period April – June which is a 10.5 percent increase over the January – March time period. For more details see the story, California Foreclosure Activity Hits Three-Year High on the DataQuick web site.