Leap Day is Coming

The earth rotates around the sun once every 365 and about 1/4 days. So, by adding an extra day every four years, we get mighty close to keeping the calendar consistent with the earth's annual trip around the sun. And to be very precise, the earth orbits the sun every 365.242190 days. So, on years ending in "00", (except those not divisible by 400) we skip Leap Year and Leap Day. This is leap year and we get our extra day on February 29th.

If your birthday is on Leap Day, congratulations, you finally get to celebrate your birthday on your birth date. Only about one in 1461 people celebrates birthdays on February 29. So, if you were born on this day, consider yourself very, very special.

This is an excerpt of Julie’s Newsletter for February. If you are not on the mail list and would like to receive a copy please visit my newsletter page at jalone.com or fill out this quick form. There are no obligations to receive this entertaining newsletter.

Interest Rates and Loan Availability

In the past week I have had two posts about the recent Federal Reserve lowering key interest rates and have indicated this was good news for our struggling Sacramento real estate market. I received a comment on one of these posts asking why I was cheerleading low interest rates when it was cheap money that got us to this point.

That reader’s comment made me ask if it was low rates that drove prices up to a point where very few could afford to buy. Although I am not an economist and may not fully understand the relationship between rates and fund availability I think, think we need more than low rates to spur any long lasting recovery. Check out my column over at Rocklin and Roseville Today, “Sacramento area sellers need more than low interest rates” or at jalone.com on my news page.

BTW, thank you Brad, Will, Traci, Jim and others who have seen the article about me in Broker Agent magazine and took the time to call or email me. Being the broker agent of the month for the Sacramento region is a wonderful honor and I am very appreciative to those who nominated me.

Will Lower Rates Spark a Market Rebound?

From Realtor.org: Susanne Cannon, the director of the Real Estate Center at DePaul University, says that at a conference this month with other academics who specialize in housing, the consensus was that many buyers have been waiting on the sidelines until the market hits bottom and then plan to make their move.

Now that lower rates are a factor, Cannon says, the question becomes: At what point will buyers be compelled to act, thinking they are getting a price they can live with and a rate they do not want to miss out on?

Otha Greer, an associate with Coldwell Banker in Jackson, Miss., says the drop in rates ''has lit the fire in my business. I actually had an investor that called yesterday and she's interested in buying five homes.''

Not everybody is persuaded the turnaround has come. A Merrill Lynch report this week said housing prices were ''likely to remain in free fall.'' The report predicted a drop of 15 percent this year, 10 percent next year, and ''more depreciation likely beyond the forecast period'' — despite an expected series of rate cuts.

But Jim Klinge, an associate in San Diego, was closing his fifth deal this month, a decided improvement from the 16 houses he sold in all of 2007. ''It's very hard to find the right house at the right price,'' he says, ''but there's a strong undercurrent of very healthy demand.''

One of caveats to the above story is that many markets across the US did not experience the correction we have felt in the Sacramento area and may already be showing signs of recovery. In the Sacramento real estate market the consensus still appears to be another year, if not more, of depreciating values. Having lower interest rates will help but we still need to work through a huge amount of inventory before any sort of recovery can begin.

Rates Fall - Price Dropped - Broker Agent

Freddie Mac reports that interest on 30-year, fixed loans fell for the fourth straight week, landing at their lowest level in nearly four years. Rates averaged 5.48 percent for the week ended Jan. 24 -- down from 5.69 percent a week ago. This drop was driven by the Federal Reserve’s biggest cut in 20 years to fed fund rate. Freddie Mac also reports that rates on 15-year mortgages declined to 4.95 percent from 5.21 percent, rates on five-year adjustable-rate mortgages dropped to 5.13 percent from 5.4 percent, and rates on one-year ARMs slipped to 4.99 percent from 5.26 percent.

Housing industry observers are hopeful that the recent decline in mortgage rates will lead to a recovery in the market.

Our sellers on Paizano Court in Roseville at Granite Bay Pointe are serious about selling and have lowered their asking price for 799,500 to $759,000. This former model home has upgrades galore, has the “wow” factor and at this price is a lot of house for the money. Call or email Robin or me to arrange a private viewing. This one is fun to see.

BTW if you happen to be a real estate professional check out this month’s Broker Agent magazine and notice who is on the cover as the Sacramento region agent broker of the month for January.

Listen but don't panic

The National Association of Realtors has lost a great deal of credibility when it comes to making forecasts and maybe the beginning of this disturbing trend started back at the beginning of this downturn (August 2005) when their chief economist at the time, David Lereah said, “All of the doom and gloom forecasts of a housing debacle are not only irresponsible, but also downright wrong.” There is a great deal of good work being done by the NAR but, in my opinion they should exit the forecast and “spin” business and concentrate on helping to improve the image of Realtors.

On the other hand, after two plus years of downward real estate trends, there are now industry professionals who have gone in the other direction and seem to pride themselves on how “gloomy” they can make the market appear. I didn’t attend but got a report from a title company sales officer that Mike Lyon of Lyon Real Estate made such a “gloom and doom” forecast yesterday in Roseville. My contact is a sale person; he makes his living selling his company’s service to real estate agents. He told me the Lyon talk was so depressing he had to leave.

I know there are agents out there who are struggling with this slower market and new agents who are just starting to build their business. I encourage you to listen and pay attention to what is happening in the market, you will need this information to best serve your clients but do NOT let it chase you away. It is only one of many variables that will determine your success or failure in this industry. I encourage you to listen and pay attention to what is happening in the market, you will need this information to best serve your clients but do NOT let it chase you away.

The real estate market is the real estate market. It can be like it was in the early 2000’s or like it is now. Regardless there will always be buyers and sellers who need your experience and expertise. Today there are fewer sales which only mean the competition for those transactions is higher. Good Realtors who manage their business by placing their clients’ needs ahead of their commissions and build long term relationships will always be successful.

Will buyers see their shadow?

Something must be happening out there in Sacramento real estate land. Yesterday I was working with buyers who are looking to upgrade their home in the Roseville area. Two of the homes the wife was interested in seeing had been on the market for a long time, one them was over 180 days (six months waiting for a sale). As I was setting up our tour I found out the first one had gone pending that morning so we took it off our list. The second one turned out to be a lovely home and my client liked it and wanted some additional information. I called the agent only to learn the sellers had accepted an offer while we were looking at it. Six months on the market and it goes pending on the day my client is interested. How strange is that in a market where most sellers can’t get a showing?

I assured my buyers, not to worry, there are plenty of homes to look at and eager sellers willing to negotiate, we will find another great house but next time I may call the agent before just to check availability.

This experience combined with the recent activity we had on a short sale in Lincoln (See January 14th post – “Price it Right…they will come!”) continues to make me feel like the level of sales activity may actually show some growth as we move into Februrary and March. Having inerest rates continuing to decline can’t hurt.

Getting Started After a Few Days Off

I am sure I am not the only one this morning struggling to get started after a long weekend. As you may know from my blog post yesterday, we spent the weekend in Southern California and enjoyed three wonderfully warm days in Hollywood and at Universal Studios.

Since Tuesday is my normal day for posting my column at Rocklin & Roseville Today and my creative juices seem to be on a low ebb after driving down Wisteria Lane at Universal Studios I checked all my normal sources for ideas to inspire a real estate article. If there is something out there about the Sacramento and/or Roseville real estate market that is inspiring, I missed it so wrote about what is on my mind, getting a few things done. Check out, “Cold and Dreary Winter Morning.”

Well at least it is not Monday and writing about how difficult it is to get started after a few days off, did exactly that…get started.

By the way, congratulations to Kara Green, our newest Realtor at MagnumOne Realty, who has officially become a member of the Placer County Association of Realtors and is now all set to work with clients. Way to go Kara!

Last item - For Sierra parents and friends: Tickets to the Beach Party Crab Feast on February 9th are selling fast. If you want to attend this FUN raiser and support our school you can buy your tickets, arrange for babysitting and even buy raffle tickets online at SierraPTC.com.

Expensive Real Estate

Monday, January 21, 2008 (Martin Luther King Day)

Southern California. We decided to take a few days and get out of town so picked Universal Studios in Southern California. Mikie was excited to see “Hollywood” and I thought it would be a good outing for the family.

After two days of touring the park and taking a few rides around the area, I can tell you what you already know. There are a lot of people there, they all seem to be on the freeway at the same time or going to breakfast, lunch and dinner with you, there are some spectacular homes and the prices are out of sight.

Overall we had a good time; visiting Universal Studios is fun but not the best place for a sensitive 8 year old. Too many of the tours and attractions are a bit on the scary side with darkness, loud noise and sudden movement. Mikie says he wants to come back when he is 12-years old. They were filming Desperate Housewives and Ghost Whisperer when we were there and it was fun to see the houses on Wisteria Lane and the antique store in Grandview. No sign of any stars!

We enjoyed a few meals at City Walk which is a maul of shops, restaurants and clubs adjacent to the park and last night we used our car’s navigation system to find a really cute Mexican food place. It was packed with what we thought were football fans watching the NFL championship game. Wrong, the guys it that place were watching each other. Oh well, another first experience for Mikie!

Good to get away and always better to return home and realize at a point down the line some of those people down south will discover the quality of life and the affordable prices of Sacramento real estate.

Welcome Kara Green

I am particularly pleased to welcome Kara Green as MagnumOne Realty’s newest agent. Kara was born and raised here in the Sacramento area and after a number of years living in Canada moved back home. I was fortunate to represent Kara and her husband, Blaine, as they searched for and acquired a new home. It was a difficult search because they had some unique needs but eventually we found the perfect home. During that time we talked a great deal about real estate and I am delighted our conversations led to her becoming a Realtor and for the opportunity to work with her. Welcome Kara, welcome home!

If you want to learn more about Kara, visit her jalone.com page.

Waiting and watching

The real estate market here in Sacramento is quiet on the surface, there are not going to be enough transactions in 2008 to support the current population of agents, but is teaming with activity not being tracked. Many of the pundits who are predicting another year of depreciating values would be surprised if we could see all the web activity from potential buyers who are waiting for the day they believe is the bottom of the market. No one wants to admit they bought in June or July of 2005 but there are many who would like to buy at the bottom of this cycle. Check out my latest article, “Waiting for a reward” and see what others are saying about 2008. I have also published it as my weekly column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today.

Price it Right...they will come!

Over at MagnumOne Realty, our agent Kelly Baker listed a home in Lincoln last week. Because it have been on the market for some time with another agent and it is a short sale we made a decision to price it very aggressively since the seller needs to be done with the property and the bank had conditionally approved taking a discount. We priced this Lincoln Crossing home less than $105 per square foot or $335,000 for a nice 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath, 3,206 square foot house.
If you believe there are no buyers out there, guess again because the phone has been ringing off the hook and we are already in a multiple offer situation. On the same street there are a number of other homes for sale with nothing happening. I recently read one market described as 80 percent over priced and only 20 percent realistically priced. This may very well be the case with the Sacramento market. Price it right and they will come.

Job Opening

We were sad to learn this week that my assistant, Megan Warn, will not be returning to her position when she recovers from the illness she has been fighting for the past several months. Megan did an outstanding job for us and we were hoping she would stay, continue to learn and eventually become a Realtor with us. We do understand her current need to get well and find a job that offers medical insurance benefits.

The exciting part of having a job opening is that you get to re-define what you need and have the opportunity to meet and talk with people who will become a big part of your life over the next year. If you or someone you know is interested in an assistant position, check out our job posting or send me an email. Experience is not required but we are looking for a specific set of skills, flexibility and a desire to start a career in real estate.

Congratulations to Kelly Baker

Thursday, January 9, 2008

Congratulations to our MagnumOne Realtor Kelly Baker. Earlier this week she got her first solo listing. In this crazy Sacramento real estate market, as you might expect, the listing is a short sale. The good news is it is a great house in Lincoln Crossing. The seller is in the military, being deployed with no promise of returning to this area and unfortunately like many homes in this area of Lincoln it was built and purchased in 2005 at the height of the market. At this time, the value of the home is less than the mortgage and the lender has already conditionally approved the short sale. If you or someone you know is looking for a large family home, here is an opportunity to get a very attractive deal on a beautiful home. For more information, see Keswick Lane. Again, congratulations Kelly!

The market is clearly picking up after the holidays. Several of our listing had multiple showings this week and there are some scheduled for this weekend. Speaking of showings, I will be holding our Tanus Circle listing open tomorrow from noon to 3 PM. This house is fun to view even if you are not in the market for a new home so if you are out and about in Rocklin, stop by, say hello and take a look.

Just a few things....

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Wow, we have things to report. Most important I’d like to welcome our newest Realtor to MagnumOne Realty, Kara Green. Kara is a brand new Realtor who we are very excited about. She has lived here in the Sacramento area for almost her entire life and has a large and diverse circle of friends and family. She is bright and outgoing and we believe will be a great addition to the MagnumOne Realty team. We have not had a chance to build a webpage for Kara but hope to have one completed by early next week.

Second, we have price reductions on two of our listings. The asking price on our Paizano Court listing in Roseville has been reduced from $850,000 to $799,900. Clearly this is a significant reduction and brings this wonderful former JTS model home with scads of upgrades into the bargain category. This is a lot of house for the price. We also added some great new pictures of this home.

On a showing scale, our listing on Tanus Circle in Rocklin ranks up there with the best we have ever marketed. This home is beautifully decorated, has all the right upgrades and is easy to feel like you could live there. We have just refreshed this listing with a new asking price of $594,000. It is time for a new family for this house and it should happen soon.

This past week, I had another interesting experience with an agent representing a home in Loomis that some clients of mine are interested in. The home is marketed as being on over 3 acres but the tax records indicate a lot size much smaller so I called the agent to get some clarification. Read about this surprising conversation in my weekly column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today. Bad real estate agents are not good for the industry or the clients they serve and if there is any good that will come from this slower real estate market it will be that some of these will be working at Wal-Mart as greeters in the next year.

Could be a good new year!

This must be a new year, the holidays are gone and a large winter storm is moving toward Sacramento but I do have some very good news to share.

First, I am delighted to announce that Robin Sweigart has joined our MagnumOne Realty team as an associate broker. She brings us a wealth of experience as an appraiser and we are pleased that she has made the decision to become a Realtor and join us. For more information about Robin, check out her page at jalone.com. We know her attention to detail and enthusiasm will translate to the kind or client service we want MagnumOne to be known for. Welcome Robin!

Our second piece of good news is finding out that one of the top Internet real estate marketing firms has name our website, http://www.jalone.com/ in the top 100 sites nationwide. We actually came in at #54 so we feel pretty good about that accomplishment and thank all of you who regularly visit our site.

If you are interested in reading about what I have to say about 2008 and the local Sacramento real estate market, check out my column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today, “New Year.”

Lazy Day - Busy Year

Yesterday was very lazy around the Jalone home was we watched the Rose Parade (wow is it good on HDTV!) a few football games and played Guitar Hero with Mikie. With the kids out of school until Monday I think I have a few quiet days to get things in order for starting 2008.

I have been toying with the idea of trying a podcast and Michael thinks he has found the right application for me to give it a try. We are going to start off very informally so keep an eye out for the official announcement that we have our first show complete and ready for listening. I guarantee they will be short and hopefully fun.