Listen but don't panic

The National Association of Realtors has lost a great deal of credibility when it comes to making forecasts and maybe the beginning of this disturbing trend started back at the beginning of this downturn (August 2005) when their chief economist at the time, David Lereah said, “All of the doom and gloom forecasts of a housing debacle are not only irresponsible, but also downright wrong.” There is a great deal of good work being done by the NAR but, in my opinion they should exit the forecast and “spin” business and concentrate on helping to improve the image of Realtors.

On the other hand, after two plus years of downward real estate trends, there are now industry professionals who have gone in the other direction and seem to pride themselves on how “gloomy” they can make the market appear. I didn’t attend but got a report from a title company sales officer that Mike Lyon of Lyon Real Estate made such a “gloom and doom” forecast yesterday in Roseville. My contact is a sale person; he makes his living selling his company’s service to real estate agents. He told me the Lyon talk was so depressing he had to leave.

I know there are agents out there who are struggling with this slower market and new agents who are just starting to build their business. I encourage you to listen and pay attention to what is happening in the market, you will need this information to best serve your clients but do NOT let it chase you away. It is only one of many variables that will determine your success or failure in this industry. I encourage you to listen and pay attention to what is happening in the market, you will need this information to best serve your clients but do NOT let it chase you away.

The real estate market is the real estate market. It can be like it was in the early 2000’s or like it is now. Regardless there will always be buyers and sellers who need your experience and expertise. Today there are fewer sales which only mean the competition for those transactions is higher. Good Realtors who manage their business by placing their clients’ needs ahead of their commissions and build long term relationships will always be successful.

Will buyers see their shadow?

Something must be happening out there in Sacramento real estate land. Yesterday I was working with buyers who are looking to upgrade their home in the Roseville area. Two of the homes the wife was interested in seeing had been on the market for a long time, one them was over 180 days (six months waiting for a sale). As I was setting up our tour I found out the first one had gone pending that morning so we took it off our list. The second one turned out to be a lovely home and my client liked it and wanted some additional information. I called the agent only to learn the sellers had accepted an offer while we were looking at it. Six months on the market and it goes pending on the day my client is interested. How strange is that in a market where most sellers can’t get a showing?

I assured my buyers, not to worry, there are plenty of homes to look at and eager sellers willing to negotiate, we will find another great house but next time I may call the agent before just to check availability.

This experience combined with the recent activity we had on a short sale in Lincoln (See January 14th post – “Price it Right…they will come!”) continues to make me feel like the level of sales activity may actually show some growth as we move into Februrary and March. Having inerest rates continuing to decline can’t hurt.

Waiting and watching

The real estate market here in Sacramento is quiet on the surface, there are not going to be enough transactions in 2008 to support the current population of agents, but is teaming with activity not being tracked. Many of the pundits who are predicting another year of depreciating values would be surprised if we could see all the web activity from potential buyers who are waiting for the day they believe is the bottom of the market. No one wants to admit they bought in June or July of 2005 but there are many who would like to buy at the bottom of this cycle. Check out my latest article, “Waiting for a reward” and see what others are saying about 2008. I have also published it as my weekly column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today.

Looking for a hideaway?

Check out the new listing our team just added in Colfax. This is the perfect hideaway, a remodeled 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,400 square foot home on a beautiful 3.6 acre site. Great little house nestled among the big shade trees and only a couple of miles off of Highway 80. Only a few minutes up the road from Auburn and you leave the city behind!

This week continues to be busy, with a combination of sellers and buyers so although the overall market seems to be in the lazy days of summer we have been busy. I anticipate we still have a few more weeks of this pace then I anticipate an increase in overall activity as we start to get close to school starting. After that happens we should see some gradual decline in inventory and maybe some firming of prices as we move into the late part of autumn.

Looking for a hideaway?

Check out the new listing our team just added in Colfax. This is the perfect hideaway, a remodeled 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,400 square foot home on a beautiful 3.6 acre site. Great little house nestled among the big shade trees and only a couple of miles off of Highway 80. Only a few minutes up the road from Auburn and you leave the city behind!

This week continues to be busy, with a combination of sellers and buyers so although the overall market seems to be in the lazy days of summer we have been busy. I anticipate we still have a few more weeks of this pace then I anticipate an increase in overall activity as we start to get close to school starting. After that happens we should see some gradual decline in inventory and maybe some firming of prices as we move into the late part of autumn.