More California Numbers

The California Association of REALTORS® just reported on the sales activity for the State during March. They divide the state into 20 geographic markets and their report stated, “The median price was up, ranging from a high of 23.6 in the High Desert to a low of 1.6 percent in northern Santa Barbara County.” They reported the Sacramento region median price was down .9 percent from February to $376,010 which is 5.2 percent higher than March 2005. As I wrote yesterday they also reported volume was up from February but down from last year’s record pace. In Sacramento they reported an 5.2. percent increase in sales from February and a drop of 27.2 percent from last year. Only Orange County had a larger drop in volume from last year.

According to CAR economist, Robert Kleinhenz, "It's not like the housing market has collapsed. It just down-shifted from an extraordinary level of sales to a more ordinary level of sales." My opinion is that it remains too early to tell how this year will turn out. I remain convinced that the late arrival of spring has dampened the market and now that we finally have some nice weather the question is, will the buyers come out? I remain optimistic but believe it will the later part of May before we have a better feel for how our market is going to perform.

Here are a few highlights from the CAR report for March:

• CAR's Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in March 2006 was 4.8 months, compared with 2.2 months for the same period a year ago.
• Thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rates averaged 6.32 percent during March 2006, compared with 5.93 percent in March 2005, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable mortgage interest rates averaged 5.42 percent in March 2006 compared with 4.23 percent in March 2005.
• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 44 days in March 2006, compared with 30 days for the same period a year ago.
• Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during March 2006 were: Laguna Beach, $1,827,000; Burlingame, $1,720,000; Beverly Hills, $1,665,000; Los Altos, $1,626,000; Manhattan Beach, $1,625,000; Newport Beach, $1,520,000; Coronado, $1,463,750; Saratoga, $1,391,000; Los Gatos, $1,300,000; Calabasas, $1,259,500.
• Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in March 2006 compared with the same period a year ago were: Reedley, 58.9 percent; Atwater, 52 percent; Twentynine Palms, 48.8 percent; Barstow, 45.7 percent; Beaumont, 45.6 percent; Taft, 44 percent; California City, 43.1 percent; Burlingame, 40.4 percent; Porterville, 40.3 percent; Highland, 36.8 percent.
• In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by CAR and DataQuick, 89.8% percent or 369 of 411 cities and communities showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. This report can be seen at http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzYwNTQ=

The entire CAR report can be found on their web page at March 06 sales/price report.

California Sales and Price - March

We know about our area and the story is similar for the State, March home buying volume was up from February but behind the pace of a year ago and prices rose but not as fast. Yesterday the California Association of REALTORS (CAR) reported the median price of an existing home in California increased 13 percent in March and sales decreased 15.1 percent compared with the same period a year ago.

They went on to say that the pace of sales appears to be picking up and many buyers who had adopted a `wait-and-see' approach with respect to interest rates earlier this year realize that while rates are higher than they were six months or a year ago, they still remain just above historically low levels. Personally, I am not feeling as optimistic yet and feel that there are still many potential buyers who continue to believe prices are going to drop and the higher interest rates only make their view of the market easier to live with.

I might be feeling as optimistic as the economists with CAR if our inventory of available homes had followed the State results which reported inventory of homes fell from 6.6 month supply in February to 4.8 months in March. Even with increased sales volume our Sacramento area inventory continued to grow.
Check back tomorrow and I will walk through more of the statewide numbers and examine where the most expensive homes in the State are and which areas experienced the highest price appreciation last month.

If you want to read the full report it is available on the CAR website, March 06 sales/price report.

Better Than We Expected: Sacramento in March

The March real estate activity in the Greater Sacramento area was better than we expected. Julie and Michael Jalone, describe how sales volume and median prices fared during the very wet month of March.

It was no surprise the number of homes in the four county Sacramento area increased during the month of March from what we experienced in February. It was also not hard to predict that the number of homes sold in March would be less than a year ago. According to DataQuick, the overall the sales volume in the four county area increased 29% from February to 3,285 but even with the increase the number was 29.5% lower than last March. El Dorado led the way with a volume increase of almost 60%.
Read the full article on our Real Estate News page at www.jalone.com

Looking from Alaska

Getting ready to leave town for a few days and visiting family in Alaska has made for a busy week so I apologize for not keeping up with entries. Most of the March results are now in and I will be preparing my monthly update soon but wanted to give you a flavor of what happened last month, especially in Roseville where the results were positive in regards to volume and median price increases.

In the three zip codes that make up Roseville (95661, 95678 and 95747) we saw volume increase across the board with zip code 95747 leading the way with 55 sales and an increase of 44.7 percent over February. In terms of median price again all three parts of Roseville saw increases from the previous month and from March of 2005. In 95661 the median price of $469,250 was up 2.29 percent from February and 2.2 percent over March 2005. In 95678 the median increased 3.23 percent from February to $407,750. This represents an annual increase of 7.5 percent. In 95747 the median sales price for March was $487,000 up 13.45 percent from February and 14.6 from a year ago.

Over the next few days I will be posting my monthly review so keep an eye on my real estate news page at jalone.com. In addition I will be looking at the Rocklin, Granite Bay and Lincoln numbers here on my Blog.

Inventory Continues to Grow

If you have been reading my Blog you know, one of the sites I look at routinely is Housing Tracker. They monitor the inventory of homes on the market and the median asking price. As of April 14, the Sacramento inventory level stood at 8,334. This is an increase of just about 1,500 homes from the start of the year and 1,105 more than was on the market Feb 1. Since March 1, when there was 7,663 homes on the market it is an 8.7 percent increase. In the last two weeks we have seen inventory grow 231 homes to the current level. I suspect the number will be higher again on the next reporting date, April 21 and will continue to grow until we start getting some dry and warmer weather to bring out the buyers. By the way, our friend at Sacramento Land(ing) did a similar post on inventory and claims the current 8,334 homes on the market now, “… exceeds the high-water mark reached in November 2005….”

The median asking price reported by Housing Tracker in Sacramento was $389,990. This is the highest median price reported this year although, if you look, it has been staying anywhere from $389,000 to $389,900 over the past several weeks.

With some nicer weather forecast for this week, I am hoping to see some increased buyer activity, especially on my listings!

Good Sites, Nicely Done and Free Advertising

Over the past month I have been maintaining a blog at Rocklin & Roseville Today which is part of Placer Publishing which maintains community online newspapers and directories for Rocklin & Roseville, Lincoln & Loomis, Auburn, and Folsom & El Dorado Hills. If you haven’t visited them yet, give them a try, you will find them well done with good content and easy navigation. To get the most out of the sites you will need to register but that is quick, simple and free. While you are there check out the recent entries to my blog, “Keep it Real” and the three other blogs currently being published.

The feature I really wanted to draw your attention to is the free classifieds they offer. This may not be eBay or Craigslist but if you have something to sell, a service to provide, or even an announcement, it is a good place to get it out to your local community. I just placed advertisements for my three current listings; here are the links so you can see how they look and how easy it is to respond to the ad.

1672 Blackbird Street – West Roseville
1512 Arrowwood Lane – West Roseville
5306 Fairway Drive - Rocklin

Today is Good Friday and as we move into this special Easter weekend I hope it brings everything you want it to. Have a safe and happy Easter.

Where to Spend When Preparing Your Home For Sale
I am not a fan of the websites that promise users various bits of information including a suggested value of their home and after you enter information, you get a page that says an agent will call you. They charge agents a monthly fee for these “referrals” and most of the users are not ready or don’t want to talk to a Realtor. I tried Home Values and Listings and was more than disappointed with the results.

Now having denigrated these providers, I did find a fun tool on HomeGain. They call it a Home Sale Maximizer and, by area code, it calculates where to spend money on preparing your home for sale. You respond to a series of yes no questions about your property and it returns the average cost of the improvements, the increase in selling price, the average return on investment and the percentage of agents who recommend each improvement.

I used it for Rocklin zip code 95677 and answered “no” to all questions regarding my home and the top three suggested improvements were Lighten and Brighten which has an average cost of $85, a return on investment of 770% and recommended by 72% of agents. Second was Clean/de-clutter with an average cost of $333 and yielding a 502% return with 90% of agents recommending (what agent would not suggest cleaning your house to sell?). The third most cost effective improvement was preparing your yard with a cost of $317, a yield of 251% and 74% of agents recommending. Improvements that failed to even return a dollar for every dollar spent included interior painting (60%), carpeting (45%), flooring (45%) and exterior painting (20%).

Remember, almost all Realtors will provide a comparative market analysis (CMA) on your home with no obligations and most of us are nice about it! These reports include information on similar homes that have sold, are pending and those that are actively on the market. I generally recommend including a personal visit to the home because you can learn so much more about a home when you actually see it, but will send them by email if that is what the client wants.

Do National Forecasts Mean Anything?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has just released their forecast and is a projecting the sale of existing homes will drop to 6.65 million sales this year. This is a 6 percent drop from the 2005 record year of 7.08 million sales. This is not a big surprise, although many of us might have predicted the drop to be bigger.

The NAR is also projecting new home sales to fall by a greater percentage from 1.28 million last year to 1.14 million this year, down 10.9 percent. Our local homebuilders would probably welcome that decline. The new home sales reports in Sacramento are far gloomier. According to the Gregory Group, a local company that follows the market, homebuilders in Sacramento, Yolo, Placer, El Dorado, Sutter and Yuba counties sold 2,081 homes from January through March 2006, compared to 4,812 in the same three months last year, a 57% drop.

There is no doubt that some of the slowdown is a result of rising home prices and higher interest rates but I firmly believe the bad weather has had significant roll in market performance and until we get a long stretch of warm sunny days it is going to be difficult to compare or predict how our local market will do in 2006.

By the way, what is going on in Elk Grove? I was working with a strong buyer over the weekend and we lost out on two homes, both multiple offer situations? Is it sunny and warm in Elk Grove?

Rain and More Rain

The rain is falling and interest rates aren’t! The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.43 percent from 6.35 percent during the week ended April 6, according to Freddie Mac.Interest on 15-year fixed loans edged up to 6.10 percent from 6 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, the one-year adjustable mortgage rate rose to 5.57 percent from 5.51 percent; and the five-year hybrid ARM surged to 6.11 percent from 6.02 percent. Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft attributes the gains to economic growth and rising energy prices, which have sparked concerns about inflation. “In the first quarter of 2006, it appears that economic growth picked up relative to the last three months of 2005. There is concern that the continued high level of energy cost may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy and fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week." Read the full story here.

In my last post I mentioned a site I look at, Housing Tracker, and said they had reported an increase in the median sale price increase during March. I was politely reminded, by the author of Sacramento Land(ing) Blog, that Housing Tracker reports the median asking price, not sale price. By the way, I do enjoy reading the Sacramento Land(ing), for a “bubbler” slant on the market it is well written and worth the time to read.

Sacramento Prices up Again?

The early March reports on the real estate market in Sacramento County indicate the average sales price for a home increased for the second straight month. Based on what I have been able to find, it appears we will see a .28 percent increase from February to March in average price and a 1.25% positive bump in the median price paid in Sacramento. Housing Tracker, which has a bit of a strange view of Sacramento in that they include some communities in Placer County, indicates that the median sales price is up slightly from $389,000 to $389,500 from March 1 to April 1. This is a month over month gain of only .13 percent. They also show inventory of homes on the market increasing from 7,663 to 8,103 or a 5.7 percent increase during March.

Over the next few days more March results should become available and I should get some more specific community news to report.

Don’t forget, in addition to tax returns being due this month, April 10th is the deadline for paying the second installment on property taxes.

April is Earthquake Preparedness Month

Could we have an earthquake in Sacramento? It could happen.

After an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.6 that caused widespread damage nearby, the local newspaper’s headline read: “The Earth Dances a Lively Hornpipe.” The paper in question wasn’t the San Francisco Chronicle, Los Angeles Times or Eureka Times-Standard, all of which have had their fair share of earthquake headlines. It was the Sacramento Bee.

We have less to fear from earthquakes than many other Californians but we are not totally immune and since April is Earthquake Preparedness Month this is a good time to think about what you would do during any type of emergency.

The 100th anniversary of the Great San Francisco Earthquake is April 18. But there’s another anniversary of which Sacramento-area residents should be aware. The “lively hornpipe” the Earth danced that was felt so strongly in Sacramento occurred on April 19, 1892. The epicenter was estimated to be somewhere in the area of Vacaville, Dixon and Winters. There was also damage in the capital, Woodland, Chico, Davis, Napa, and Fairfield, among other places. A second destructive magnitude 6.4 quake occurred two days later and then a 5.6 aftershock on April 29.

Unlike Los Angeles and San Francisco, Sacramento is not known to be underlain by active faults. However, there are many known faults all around, and perhaps some unknown ones, too.

History has taught us that the old "What you don't know can't hurt you…." adage clearly does not apply when it comes to earthquakes. The most important lesson we can learn from our state's earthquake history is that although scientists cannot predict when an earthquake will happen, we can be prepared when an earthquake strikes. Here are several individual and family preparation steps that serve as a beginning:

Know the safe spots in each room-under sturdy tables, desks or against inside walls.
Know the danger spots-windows, mirrors, hanging objects, fireplaces, tall furniture.
Conduct practice drills. Physically place yourself and your children in safe locations.
Learn first aid and CPR (cardiopulmonary resuscitation) from your local Red Cross Chapter or other community organizations.
Decide where your family will reunite if separated.
Keep a list of emergency telephone numbers.
Choose an out-of-state friend or relative whom family members can call after the quake to report whereabouts and conditions.

If a major earthquake struck in your area today, you might be without direct assistance for up to 72 hours. Are you prepared to be self-sufficient? Take a look at the earthquake web page and earthquake resource links we have assembled on our jalone.com website. We hope you find them interesting and helpful.