Two Years of Change
It just dawned on me that just about this time two years ago, everything in the real estate market started to change from how it had been for five years before that. Not all of it has been easy and a good deal of people have been hurt, more are facing foreclosure but maybe, just maybe, where the market is today is leading towards building a better foundation for the future of the industry. Take a look at my latest column, “Two Years of Change” at Rocklin & Roseville Today, or on my website and see if you agree.
We just published and mailed the latest “Julie’s Newsletter” and it is one of my favorites. There are no obligations when you sign-up and the Newsletter is free so find out why they call a poker hand with a pair of aces and eights “Dead Man’s Hand.” The answer and more is in my August Newsletter along with a great offer from Liquid Landscape Services
Labels: Article, Newsletter
posted by Julie Jalone @ 1:04 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
I enjoyed reading your article and frequent this blog to get a realtors take on what is happening in this market.
That being said, I wouldn't be so quick to discount the "crash" terms used by the bubble blogs to date. So far, their market forecasts are the closest to reality. (I'm not talking about the doomsday folks... there really aren't that many of them on the blogs I frequent. I'm talking about the people like me who see the fundamental problem with the current housing market and recognize it has nowhere to go but down... at least until it returns to the fundamentals).
The last realtor I worked with was telling me (8 mo. ago now) that housing had hit bottom and would climb up by at least 3% before the end of 2007. (She also said that the 40 year mortgage was going to emerge as the new standard etc. etc.) She was way off, and so were the other "positive" spin sources.
The facts point to the median home price being well above affordability for the median income (even after a 10% drop). The only way to get homes selling again is to get back in line with affordability. The money supply is drying up so now people must be able to "afford" any future homes they purchase. (By afford I mean 10%-20% down, and sustainable fixed rate mortgages based on what they currently make).
It doesn't take much research to see where houses should be in relation to the last 100 years of real estate history. This up-swing in home values is unprecedented so we're in uncharted territory. My guess is, in another two years a new article could be written, "boy, we sure didn't see that one coming". Look at the stock market, look at lenders and the whole credit system... it's going to touch us all in more ways than we can possible imagine. We're in uncharted territory so watch for the unexpected.
Thank you very much for the comment and the visit. I was thinking more about the "doomsday" folks (I have one who likes to drip on me!). I agree with you, looking back, a few of the bubbble blogs I read were closer to calling it than some of us, who maybe had a greater reason to want to see the market bounce back.
To be successful in this business you have to optimistic but as you correctly point out the reality of the market is we need homes to be affordable.
Again, thanks and please visit my website Jalone.com
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